Model za brzo predviđanje emisija iz cestovnog transporta

doctoral thesis

• Title (english): A model for fast prediction of road transport emissions
• Author: Goran Pejić
• Mentor: Zoran Lulić (mentor)
• Committee member: Goran Šagi (predsjednik povjerenstva)
• Committee member: Petar Ilinčić (član povjerenstva)
• Committee member: Anita Domitrović (član povjerenstva)
• Granter: University of Zagreb; Faculty of Mechanical Engineering and Naval Architecture; Zagreb
• Defense date and country: 2019-06-06, Croatia
• Scientific / art field, discipline and subdiscipline: TECHNICAL SCIENCES; Mechanical Engineering
• Universal decimal classification (UDC): 62 - Engineering. Technology in general ; 502/504 - Environmental science. Conservation of natural resources. Threats to the environment and protection against them

Abstract

Cilj ovog rada je definirati funkcijske odnose između emisijske strukture flote putničkih automobila (flota vozila M1 kategorije) i emisija stakleničkih plinova. Na temelju tih odnosa izrađen je model za procjenu i upravljanje emisijama stakleničkih plinova cjelokupnog cestovnog transporta. Model se sastoji od tri podmodela: podmodela za procjenu emisija, prognostičkog podmodela i podmodela za upravljanje emisijama. Funkciju prvog podmodela, za procjenu emisija, obavlja COPERT 5. Drugi se podmodel sastoji od dva dijela: prognostičkog i scenarijskog. U prognostičkom dijelu je za prognoziranje emisijskih faktora flote M1 primijenjena regresijska analiza, a prognoziranje broja vozila u floti i prosječnog godišnjeg puta modelirano je metodom vremenskih nizova ARIMA. Difuzija novih pogonskih sustava xEV u flotu M1 modelirana je u scenarijskom dijelu drugog podmodela, primjenom funkcija difuzije. Utvrđena je vrlo čvrsta korelacija između emisija CO2 flote M1 i ukupnih emisija stakleničkih plinova cjelokupnog cestovnog transporta u EU-28. Temeljem toga procijenjene su emisije stakleničkih plinova cestovnoga transporta u Republici Hrvatskoj. Pokazano je kako se primjenom tri uvedena indikatora emisija može jednostavno pratiti kretanje godišnjih emisija cestovnog transporta prema postavljenom cilju. Na temelju povijesnih podataka za razdoblje od 2007. do 2016. godine, prognostičkim su dijelom drugoga podmodela rekonstruirane emisije u referentnoj 2005. godini.
U provedenoj scenarijskoj analizi na šest različitih scenarija je pokazano kako bi trebalo usmjeravati redovito godišnje obnavljanje flote da bi se postiglo u Europskoj uniji prihvadeno obvezujude smanjenje emisija cestovnog transporta za 30 % do 2030. godine, u odnosu na referentnu 2005. godinu. Također su pokazani izazovi s kojima de se susresti Hrvatska u ispunjavanju ovoga cilja.

Abstract (english)

The aim of this thesis was to define the functional relationships between the emission structure of the M1 vehicle fleet and greenhouse gas emissions. These relationships were used to develop a model for estimating and managing greenhouse gas emissions from the entire road traffic. The model consists of three sub-models: a sub-model for emission estimation, a forecast sub-model and a sub-model for emission control. The function of the first sub-model for emission estimation is performed by COPERT 5. The second sub-model has two additional sub-models: an additional forecast sub-model and an additional scenario sub-model. In the additional forecast sub-model, regression analysis was used to forecast M1 fleet emission factors, while the ARIMA time series method was used to forecast the number of vehicles in the fleet and the average annual distance travelled. The diffusion of new xEV propulsion systems in the M1 fleet was modelled in the additional scenario sub-model, using diffusion functions. A very strong correlation was observed between CO2 emissions from the M1 fleet and the total greenhouse gas emissions from the entire road traffic in the EU-28. Greenhouse gas emissions from road traffic in the Republic of Croatia were estimated on the basis of these results. It was demonstrated that the three emission indicators introduced help monitor the achievement of set target values for annual emissions from road traffic. Based on historical data for the period between 2007 and 2016, the additional forecast sub-model was used to reconstruct emissions in the 2005 reference year.
The scenario analysis applied to six different scenarios indicated how the regular annual fleet renewal should be managed in order to achieve the compulsory 30% reduction in road traffic emissions in the European Union by 2030 compared to the 2005 reference year. The thesis outlines the challenges that Croatia will face in meeting this objective.

• Keywords: emisije stakleničkih plinova; motorna vozila; flota vozila; modeliranje emisija; predviđanje
• Keywords (english): greenhouse gas emissions; motor vehicles; vehicle fleet; emissions modelling; prediction
• Language: croatian
• URN:NBN: urn:nbn:hr:235:786903
• Study programme: Title: Mechanical Engineering and Naval Architecture; Study programme type: university; Study level: postgraduate; Academic / professional title: doktor/doktorica znanosti, područje tehničkih znanosti (doktor/doktorica znanosti, područje tehničkih znanosti)
• Type of resource: Text
• File origin: Born digital
• Access conditions: Open access
• Created on: 2019-09-25 11:00:18