Analiza osjetljivosti budućih konfiguracija energetskog sustava s obzirom na dostupnost resursa

master's thesis

• Title (english): Sensitivity analysis of future energy system configurations with regard to resource availability
• Author: Doris Beljan
• Mentor: Neven Duić (mentor)
• Committee member: Hrvoje Kozmar (predsjednik povjerenstva)
• Committee member: Željko Tuković (član povjerenstva)
• Committee member: Milan Vujanović (član povjerenstva)
• Granter: University of Zagreb; Faculty of Mechanical Engineering and Naval Architecture; Zagreb
• Defense date and country: 2022-07-20, Croatia
• Scientific / art field, discipline and subdiscipline: TECHNICAL SCIENCES; Mechanical Engineering; Process Energy Engineering

Abstract

U skladu s ciljem smanjenja emisija stakleničkih plinova od 55% do 2030. godine u odnosu na vrijednosti iz 1990. te postizanja klimatske neutralnosti do 2050. godine, budući energetski sustavi oslanjat će se na obnovljive izvore energije. U takvim sustavima neophodne će biti tehnologije fleksibilnosti sustava kako bi se osigurala zadovoljavajuća potrošnja i sigurna opskrba u uvjetima promjenjive proizvodnje i trenucima kada ona nije dostupna. Sukladno navedenom, zadatak energetskog planiranja iziskuje posebnu pozornost usmjerenu na modeliranje sustava koji će zadovoljiti ciljeve energetske tranzicije i osigurati stabilan rad, a sve postizanjem što nižih troškova sustava. Stoga se u ovom radu koristi računalni model za dugoročno energetsko planiranje, H2RES, razvijen na Fakultetu strojarstva i brodogradnje Sveučilišta u Zagrebu unutar INTERENERGY projekta. Program ima mogućnost modeliranja fleksibilnih tehnologija i promjene dostupnosti resursa tijekom godina, što predstavlja bitan element u razvoju sustava u skladu s promjenom klimatskih uvjeta u budućnosti. Proučit će se različiti scenariji promjene klimatskih parametra za Republiku Hrvatsku, koji posljedično utječu na proizvodnju iz obnovljivih izvora energije te usporediti ponašanje sustava u scenarijima različite dostupnosti uz poštivanje ciljeva energetske nezavisnosti o fosilnim gorivima te željene klimatske neutralnosti Europe do 2050. godine. Simulacije se provode za svaku godinu u promatranom razdoblju, što je odmak od uobičajenih alata otvorenog koda i time se mogućnostima približava komercijalno dostupnim alatima.

Abstract (english)

In accordance with the goal of reducing greenhouse gasses emissions by 55% until 2030 compared to 1990 values and achieving climate neutrality by 2050, future energy systems will rely on renewable energy sources. In such systems, demand-side flexibility technologies will be necessary to ensure required consumption and safe supply in conditions of variable production and times when it is not available. Accordingly, the task of energy planning requires special attention focused on modeling the system that will meet the goals of the energy transition and ensure stable operation, all while achieving the lowest possible system costs. Therefore, this paper uses a computer software for long-term energy planning, H2RES, developed at the Faculty of Mechanical Engineering and Naval Architecture, University of Zagreb within the INTERENERGY project. The program has the ability to model flexible technologies and changes in the availability of renewable resources over the years, which is an essential element in the development of the system in accordance with changing climate conditions in the future. Different scenarios of climate parameter changes for Republic of Croatia, which consequently affect the production from renewable energy sources, will be studied and the behavior of the system will be compared in scenarios of different availability while respecting the goals of energy independence from fossil fuels and the desired climate neutrality of Europe by 2050. Simulations are carried out for each year in the observed period, which is a departure from the usual open source tools and therefore it approaches the capabilities of commercially available tools.

• Keywords: H2RES; Obnovljivi izvori energije; Energetsko planiranje; Klimatske promjene
• Keywords (english): H2RES; Renewable energy sources; Energy planning; Climate change
• Language: croatian
• URN:NBN: urn:nbn:hr:235:259804
• Study programme: Title: Mechanical Engineering; Study programme type: university; Study level: graduate; Academic / professional title: magistar/magistra inženjer/inženjerka strojarstva (magistar/magistra inženjer/inženjerka strojarstva)
• Type of resource: Text
• File origin: Born digital
• Access conditions: Open access
• Created on: 2022-07-19 14:30:37