Title Planning of the energy system using the game theory in coupled markets Title (english) Planiranje energetskoga sustava u uvjetima povezivanja tržišta primjenom teorije igara Author Antun Pfeifer Mentor Neven Duić (mentor)Committee member Goran Krajačić (predsjednik povjerenstva)Committee member Ivan Rajšl (član povjerenstva)Committee member Felipe Feijoo Granter University of Zagreb Defense date and country 2023-12-08, Croatia Scientific / art field, TECHNICAL SCIENCES Universal decimal classificationUDC ) 620 - Materials testing. Power stations. Economics of energy 339 - Trade. Commerce. International economic relations. World economy 51 - Mathematics Abstract Planning of development of energy systems today becomes closely connected to analysis of day-ahead energy markets, market coupling and dynamics of integration of both, renewable energy sources and demand response technologies. A common European energy market would enable larger integration of renewable energy sources but would also influence economic feasibility of new investments in energy production units, depending on the resources available and transmission available for import or export of energy from each market zone. In this research, methods are proposed for analysis of costs of production, storage and demand response technologies, organized in steps of energy transition in the surrounding zones; and use of game theory in assessing the long-term strategic decisions of market coupled zones.
Objectives of this research are 1) To prove the value of the use of game theory in assessing the long-term strategic decisions of market coupled zones; 2) To demonstrate the need to include the influence of market coupled countries' energy strategy on national energy strategy; 3) To analyze the influence of integration of demand response technologies in coupled market zones on the feasibility of strategic decisions in the investigated zone. The hypothesis of this research is that optimal decisions in long term energy planning for each market coupled with neighboring zones can be determined by game theory, through achieving Nash equilibrium with energy strategies of surrounding zones, even in the case of lack of information about them. Results of five published scientific papers bring forward two major scientific contributions: A method for analysis of costs of production, storage and demand response technologies, organized in steps of energy transition in the zones surrounding the zone of interest is elaborated in PAPER 1, PAPER 2 and PAPER 3, providing methodological development of approaches for a single zone and for the interconnected group of zones, which defines outputs for electricity generation technologies, energy storage and demand response in technical context and in the context of economic assessment. The second major contribution is a method which provides robust assessment of strategic decisions using game theory, which can be a new standard for national energy planning. This contribution is realized based on the groundwork done in PAPER 1, PAPER 2 and PAPER 3, through the method developed in PAPER 4 and completed using the game theory in PAPER 5.
The outcome of this research is a new method, which can be proposed as a standard for energy planning of the market zones, which are mostly national energy systems. The hypothesis of this research has been confirmed: optimal decisions in long term energy planning for each market coupled with neighboring zones can be determined by game theory, through achieving Nash equilibrium with energy strategies of surrounding zones, even in the case of lack of information about them - this is achieved through establishing a matrix of possible choices for all the zones included in the consideration and then using the proposed approach to calculate the payoffs of the choices and the developed game to reach a Nash equilibrium or the mixed strategy.
Abstract (croatian) Planiranje razvoja energetskih sustava danas postaje usko povezano s analizom energetskih tržišta dan unaprijed, spajanjem tržišta i dinamikom integracije obnovljivih izvora energije i tehnologija odgovora na potražnju. Zajedničko europsko energetsko tržište omogućilo bi veću integraciju obnovljivih izvora energije, ali bi utjecalo i na ekonomsku isplativost novih ulaganja u energetske proizvodne jedinice, ovisno o raspoloživim resursima i raspoloživom prijenosu za uvoz ili izvoz energije iz svake tržišne zone. U ovom istraživanju predložene su metode za analizu troškova proizvodnje, skladištenja i tehnologija odgovora na potražnju, organiziranih u koracima energetske tranzicije u okolnim zonama; i korištenje teorije igara u procjeni dugoročnih strateških odluka tržišno povezanih zona.
Ciljevi ovog istraživanja su 1) dokazati vrijednost upotrebe teorije igara u procjeni dugoročnih strateških odluka tržišno povezanih zona; 2) Pokazati potrebu uključivanja utjecaja energetske strategije tržišno povezanih zemalja na nacionalnu energetsku strategiju; 3) Analizirati utjecaj integracije tehnologija odgovora na potražnju u povezanim tržišnim zonama na izvedivost strateških odluka u istraživanoj zoni. Hipoteza ovog istraživanja je da se optimalne odluke u dugoročnom energetskom planiranju za svako tržište zajedno sa susjednim zonama mogu odrediti teorijom igara, kroz postizanje Nashove ravnoteže s energetskim strategijama okolnih zona, čak i u slučaju nedostatka informacija o njima.
Rezultati pet objavljenih znanstvenih radova donose dva velika znanstvena doprinosa: Metoda za analizu troškova proizvodnje, skladištenja i tehnologija odgovora na potražnju, organiziranih u koracima energetske tranzicije u zonama koje okružuju zonu interesa razrađena je u RADU 1, RADU 2 i RADU 3, koji pruža metodološki razvoj pristupa za jednu zonu i za međusobno povezanu grupu zona, koji definira rezultate za tehnologije proizvodnje električne energije, skladištenje energije i odgovor na potražnju u tehničkom kontekstu i u kontekstu ekonomske procjene. Drugi veliki doprinos je metoda koja daje robusnu procjenu strateških odluka korištenjem teorije igara, što može biti novi standard za nacionalno energetsko planiranje. Ovaj je doprinos ostvaren na temelju metoda i analiza razvijenih u RADU 1, RADU 2 i RADU 3, te kroz metodu razvijenu u RADU 4 i dovršenu korištenjem teorije igara u RADU 5.
Ishod ovog istraživanja je nova metoda, koja se može predložiti kao standard za energetsko planiranje tržišnih zona, koje su uglavnom nacionalni energetski sustavi. Hipoteza ovog istraživanja je potvrđena: optimalne odluke u dugoročnom energetskom planiranju za svako tržište zajedno sa susjednim zonama mogu se odrediti teorijom igara, kroz postizanje Nashove ravnoteže s energetskim strategijama okolnih zona, čak i u slučaju nedostatka informacija o njih - to se postiže uspostavljanjem matrice mogućih izbora za sve zone uključene u razmatranje, a zatim korištenjem predloženog pristupa za izračunavanje isplativosti izbora i razvijene igre za postizanje Nashove ravnoteže ili mješovite strategije.I
Keywords
Long-term energy planning
Integrated energy systems
High share of renewable energy
Demand response technologies
Flexibility options for the energy system
Game theory
Nash equilibrium
Keywords (croatian)
Dugoročno energetsko planiranje
Integrirani energetski sustavi
Visok udio obnovljive energije
Tehnologije odziva potrošnje
Mogućnosti pružanja fleksibilnosti energetskome sustavu
Teorija igara
Nashova ravnoteža
Language english URN:NBN urn:nbn:hr:235:237674 Study programme Title: Mechanical Engineering and Naval Architecture Type of resource Text File origin Born digital Access conditions Open access Terms of use Created on 2023-12-19 13:35:01
