Primjena modela DispaSET na elektroenergetski sustav zemalja Zapadnog Balkana

master's thesis

• Title (english): Applying the DispaSET model on the Western Balkans power systems
• Author: Ivan Tomić
• Mentor: Neven Duić (mentor)
• Granter: University of Zagreb; Faculty of Mechanical Engineering and Naval Architecture; Zagreb
• Defense date and country: 2017-05-19, Croatia
• Scientific / art field, discipline and subdiscipline: TECHNICAL SCIENCES; Mechanical Engineering; Process Energy Engineering

Abstract

U ovome radu prikazana je implementacija DispaSET modela na zemlje Zapadnoga balkana. Glavni cilj je prikazati energetski sektor zemalja Zapadnog Balkana, Crne Gore, Bosne i Hercegovine, Kosova i Srbije kako bi se ubrzao razvoj i integracija obnovljivih izvora energije te kako bi se ispitala održivost energetskih strategija svake pojedine zemlje.

Povećanjem potrebe za energetskim planiranjem i novim regulacijskim okvirima, energetske agencije i vladine organizacije iskazuju potrebu za stvaranjem modela koji bi simulirao ponašanje energetskog sustava.

Prvi korak u stvaranju modela je prikupljanje podataka koji opisuju energetski sektor svake od promatranih država. Zatim je prikazana metodologija kojom su se prikupljeni podaci prilagođavali ulaznom modelu. Svaka od metoda je generalizirana i primijenjena na sve države.

U nastavku rada su opisani svi ulazni podaci za sve četiri zemlje, nakon čega je provedena simulacija energetskoga sustava za svaku državu, te je promatrana na razini cijele regije. Simulacija je provedena za tri scenarija. Prvi scenarij predstavlja baznu godinu te je zbog dostupnosti podataka odabrana 2010. godina. Alternativni scenariji su modelirani za 2020. i 2030. godinu. Svaki od alternativnih scenarija ima tri zasebna slučaja, A, B i C. Slučajevi A i B su razvijeni prema strategijama nacionalnog razvoja svake države. Slučaj C je strategija sa visokim udjelom obnovljivih izvora energije u ukupno instaliranim kapacitetima.

U sklopu rezultata ispitana je točnost simulacije energetskog sektora za referentni scenarij. Točnost alternativnih scenarija je ispitana promatranjem prosječne cijene električne energije koju je odredio program.

Abstract (english)

This thesis describes implementation of the DispaSET model on the Western Balkans power system. The goal is to demonstrate the power sector of four Western Balkan countries, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro and Serbia in order to accelerate the development and deployment of cost-effective low carbon technologies.

With increased energy planning needs and new regulations, environmental agencies, state energy offices and others have expressed more of an interest in electric power sector models.

The first step for creating the proper model was to gather all the available data relevant for describing power system of each country. Afterwards, methods of data processing are displayed in order to be compatible with model. The methods were generalised and being used for every country.

Secondly, all the input data are described for all four countries, and the simulation process has been carried out simultaneously for the whole region.

Three scenarios have been developed. One reference scenario and two alternatives. For the reference scenario the year 2010 has been chosen due to the data availability. Alternative scenarios are made for the year 2020 and 2030. Each of alternative scenarios has three cases, A, B and C. Cases A and B are developed according to the national reports of each country. These two case are identical and the only difference is that the Case B works in the island regime. The Case C is a strategy with high penetration of renewable energy sources in to the power sector.

Results from the reference year scenario have been validated as they accurately represent the data from the real world. Main indicator for validation of the additional scenarios was average price of electricity calculated by the model.

• Keywords: DispaSET; Energetsko planiranje; Zapadni Balkan
• Keywords (english): DispaSET; Energy planning; The Western Balkans
• Language: croatian
• URN:NBN: urn:nbn:hr:235:218972
• Study programme: Title: Mechanical Engineering; Study programme type: university; Study level: graduate; Academic / professional title: magistar/magistra inženjer/inženjerka strojarstva (magistar/magistra inženjer/inženjerka strojarstva)
• Type of resource: Text
• File origin: Born digital
• Access conditions: Open access
• Created on: 2019-05-22 19:34:52