Usporedba različitih konfiguracija energetskoga sustava Republike Hrvatske u energetskoj tranziciji

master's thesis

• Title (english): Comparison of different configurations of the energy system of the Republic of Croatia in energy transition
• Author: Luka Herc
• Mentor: Neven Duić (mentor)
• Granter: University of Zagreb; Faculty of Mechanical Engineering and Naval Architecture; Zagreb
• Defense date and country: 2021-01-21, Croatia
• Scientific / art field, discipline and subdiscipline: TECHNICAL SCIENCES; Mechanical Engineering; Process Energy Engineering

Abstract

Republika Hrvatska, kao članica Europske Unije i potpisnica Pariškog Klimatskog Sporazuma ima obvezu pridonijeti svjetskom naporu ograničavanja porasta prosječne globalne srednje temperature za 2 °C, a poželjno i unutar 1,5 °C. Konkretan cilj ovih ograničenja je postupno smanjivanje emisija stakleničkih plinova te dostizanje klimatski neutralnog energetskog sustava do 2050., što se u slučaju Hrvatske planira postupnim smanjenjem korištenja fosilnih goriva uz povećanje proizvodnje iz varijabilnih obnovljivih izvora energije (VOIE).
Uz povećanje korištenja OIE, potrebno je provoditi mjere povećanja energetske učinkovitosti, naročito u stambenom sektoru, te uvođenje međusobne povezanosti između sektora potrošnje koji se počinju oslanjati na isti energetski vektor. Hrvatska u ovom smislu ima i prednost nepovoljne demografske situacije čime se olakšavaju napori prema tranziciji energetskog sustava te se osim uz primjenu mjera energetske učinkovitosti i uz negativan prirodni prirast, smanjuje potrošnja energije.
Također, dodatan cilj koji se ostvaruje u ovom radu je dostizanje energetske nezavisnosti Republike Hrvatske što kao rezultat ima povoljne učinke na stabilnost i pouzdanost energetskog sustava, a i eliminira negativnu tržišnu bilancu sa zemljama izvoznicama fosilnih goriva.
U ovom radu se razmatra izgradnja proizvodnih kapaciteta iz VOIE uz istovremeno smanjivanje kapaciteta termoenergetskih postrojenja te implementacije mjera fleksibilnosti i pohrane energije. Primjenom navedenih promjena u energetskom sustavu, dolazi se do samoodrživog sustava s visokim udjelom obnovljivih izvora energije. Također, postižu se ukupni godišnji troškovi nižeg iznosa u usporedbi s baznom godinom kako u ukupnom iznosu, tako i po stanovniku, uz gotovo nultu emisiju stakleničkih plinova i tek neznatno višom potrošnjom biomase.
Sve u ovom radu korištene tehnologije već su danas prepoznate kao izrazito obećavajuće i moguće za skoru primjenu. Razmatrajući brzinu napretka i poboljšanja određenih tehnologija, uvode se pretpostavke smanjenja troškova. Ipak, na primjeru tehnologija poput električnih baterija je vidljiva određena mjera odstupanja brzine poboljšanja tehnologije, tj. projicirana poboljšanja su često podcjenjivala stvarna poboljšanja, što dodatno pridonosi smanjenju godišnjih troškova, a time i isplativosti sustava.

Abstract (english)

The Republic of Croatia is a member of the European Union and a signatory state to the Paris Climate accords. With signing of Paris Climate accords, it has taken over an obligation to take part in the global effort with the goal of limiting the increase of average global mean temperature by 2 °C, and preferably within 1,5 C. The means of reaching this goal are presented in gradual decrease of greenhouse gas emissions with the goal of reaching net zero emissions energy system by the year 2050. Republic of Croatia plans to achieve this goal with the gradual decrease of fossil fuel use while at the same time increasing generation from renewable energy sources.
In addition to increasing the use of renewables, there is also a necessity to implement energy efficiency measures, especially in the housing sector, and to introduce cross-sector linkages between consumption sectors that are beginning to rely on the same energy vector. In a sense, Croatia has somewhat of the advantage due to unfavorable demographic situation, which facilitates efforts towards the transition of the energy system and, in addition to the application of energy efficiency measures, also acts to reduce energy consumption.
Additional goal achieved in this paper is the achievement of Croatia’s energy independence which reflects favorably on the stability and reliability of the energy system and eliminates the negative trade balance with fossil fuel exporting countries as well.
This thesis discusses the construction of variable renewable energy generation capacities, while reducing the capacity of thermal power plants. At the same time, flexibility options and energy storage technologies are being implemented. The self-sufficient energy system with high share of renewable energy sources is achieved with the application of said technologies. Results show that total annual costs are lower compared to the base year, both in total and per capita, with almost zero greenhouse gas emissions and only slightly higher biomass consumption.
All the technologies considered in this thesis are already recognized as highly promising and applicable in a near future. Considering the rate of improvement, the assumptions of cost reduction of considered technologies are introduced. However, technologies such as electric batteries show a certain measure of deviation in the rate of technology improvement. For example, projected improvements often underestimated the actual improvements, which further contributes to reducing total annual costs and thus the cost-effectiveness of the system.

• Keywords: Dekarbonizacija; Energetska nezavisnost; Fleksibilnost; Obnovljivi izvori energije
• Keywords (english): Decarbonization; energy self-sufficiency; flexibility; renewable energy sources
• Language: croatian
• URN:NBN: urn:nbn:hr:235:558352
• Project: Number: IP-2019-04-9482; Title: Istraživanje puteva energetske tranzicije - međuovisnost "power-to-X" tehnologija, tehnologija odgovora potrošnje i povezivanja tržišta energijom; Title: Investigating energy transition pathways - interrelation between power-to-X, demand response and market coupling; Acronym: INTERENERGY; Leader: Neven Duić; Jurisdiction: Croatia; Funder: HRZZ; Funding stream: IP
• Study programme: Title: Mechanical Engineering; Study programme type: university; Study level: graduate; Academic / professional title: magistar/magistra inženjer/inženjerka strojarstva (magistar/magistra inženjer/inženjerka strojarstva)
• Type of resource: Text
• File origin: Born digital
• Access conditions: Open access
• Created on: 2021-01-13 17:47:17