Planiranje lokalnog energetskog sustava primjenom analize "od dna prema gore"

master's thesis

• Title (english): Bottom-up planning of local energy system
• Author: Viktorija Dobravec
• Mentor: Goran Krajačić (mentor)
• Mentor: Allan Schrøder Pedersen https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3709-3194 (mentor)
• Granter: University of Zagreb; Faculty of Mechanical Engineering and Naval Architecture; Zagreb
• Defense date and country: 2017-01-27, Croatia
• Scientific / art field, discipline and subdiscipline: TECHNICAL SCIENCES; Mechanical Engineering; Process Energy Engineering

Abstract

U ovom radu prikazana je analiza i rezultati prijelaza lokalnog energetskog sustava na 100% obnovljivi energetski sustav do 2050. godine. Prijelaz je proveden primjenom analize „od dna prema gore“ (eng. bottom-up). Smatra se da su lokalne zajednice glavni pokretači u prelasku na 100% obnovljivi energetski sustav, s političkog , društvenog i gospodarskog aspekta. Stoga je područje istraživanja određeno prema Nomenklaturi prostornih jedinica za statistiku na trećoj razini.

U uvodu je dana definicija analize „od dna prema gore“ u usporedbi s analizom „od vrha prema dolje“ (eng. top-down) , definicija sustava klasifikacije prostornih jedinica za potrebe službene statistike Europske unije kao i objašnjenje holističkog pristupa u energetskom planiranju.

Nakon uvoda razvijene su i opisane metode. Metode se sastoje od nekoliko koraka i prikazane su u obliku koji omogućava primjenjivost metoda na sustave različitih veličina i složenosti.

Nakon razvoja metoda, provedena je analiza slučaja za Dubrovačko-neretvansku županiju. Energetski sustav analiziran je za baznu, 2015. godinu. Ukupna potrošnja energije za 2015 godinu bila je 2.24 TWh od čega je potrošnja u sektoru prometa iznosila 1.25 TWh. Nakon toga ispitan je potencijal obnovljivih izvora energije u županiji. Najveći potencijal ima energija vjetra, Sunca i hidroenergija. Poseban naglasak je stavljen na određivanje potencijala biomase kako bi njeno korištenje u energetske svrhe ostalo u granicama održivosti. Potencijal biomase iznosio je 510.4 GWh.

Modeliranje scenarija provedeno je za cjelokupni energetski sustav, uključujući sektor transporta. Zbog složenosti takve tranzicije predloženo je nekoliko alternativnih rješenja. Dvije od tri varijacije baziraju se na konceptu 100% obnovljivog energetskog sustava (eng. 100% renewable energy system ) dok se treći temelji na principu nulte ukupne emisije ugljičnog dioksida.

Kako bi se osigurala fleksibilnost i omogućila implementacija veće količine intermitentnih obnovljivih izvora energije prihvaćen je koncept pametnog energetskog sustava.

Za usporedbu 100% obnovljivog energetskog sustava razvijen je temeljni (eng. business as usual) scenarij. Ukupna potrošnja u temeljnom scenariju u usporedbi s baznim predstavlja porast od 57.8%. S druge strane, potrošnja energije u 100% obnovljivom scenariju s proizvodnjom elektrogoriva (eng. electrofuels) iznosila je 1.49 TWh što predstavlja 33.3% manju potrošnju nego u baznoj godini.

Na kraju je provedena diskusija o rezultatima s energetskog i ekonomskog aspekta.

Abstract (english)

This thesis presents analysis and results of energy transition to a 100% renewable energy system of a local area by the year 2050. The transition is carried out by bottom-up approach. Local areas are considered to be initiators in building 100% renewable energy system, from the political, social, and economic point of view. Therefore, the study area has been selected according to the third level of the Nomenclature of units for territorial statistics (NUTS).

Firstly, definition of bottom-up approach in comparison to the top-down, definition of European Union territory classification for statistical purposes, and explanation of holistic approach were given.

Secondly, the general methods were defined and described. Methods were presented in a form of several steps so reapplication is possible to other systems of different size and complexity.

After establishing methods, a case study for Dubrovnik-Neretva county was made. Energy system was analysed for the baseline year. Final energy consumption in the year 2015 was 2.24 TWh out of which 1.25 TWh was in transport sector. Afterward, the potential of local renewable energy sources was investigated. The biggest potential had wind, solar and hydro where special emphasis was on biomass potential in order to keep its utilization on sustainable level. Biomass potential accounted for 510.4 GWh.

Modelling of the scenario was done for complete energy system – including transport sector. Due to transition complexity in transport sector, several alternatives were proposed. Two out of three variations follow 100% renewable energy system approach while third was made in accordance with the net zero carbon system approach.

In order to ensure system flexibility and higher penetration level of intermittent renewable energy sources (IRES) smart energy system concept was used.

As a benchmark for 100% renewable energy system business-as-usual scenario was made. Final energy consumption of all sectors in BAU scenario in comparison to the baseline represents growth of 57.8%. On the other hand, energy consumption of 100% RES scenario with electrofuel production was 1.49 TWh which was 33.3% lower than in the baseline year.

Finally, all results were discussed from both, energy and economic aspect.

• Keywords: Obnovljivi energetski sustav; analiza ”od dna prema gore”; Pametan energetski sustav; održivo korištenje biomase; sektor transporta
• Keywords (english): Renewable energy system; Bottom-up approach; Smart energy system; Sustainable biomass; Transport sector
• Language: english
• URN:NBN: urn:nbn:hr:235:941253
• Study programme: Title: Mechanical Engineering; Study programme type: university; Study level: graduate; Academic / professional title: magistar/magistra inženjer/inženjerka strojarstva (magistar/magistra inženjer/inženjerka strojarstva)
• Type of resource: Text
• File origin: Born digital
• Access conditions: Open access
• Created on: 2019-05-22 18:26:45