Analiza pomorskih nesreća primjenom metode stabla grešaka i Monte Carlo simulacija

master's thesis

• Title (english): Analysis of maritime accidents by Fault Tree Analysis and Monte Carlo simulations
• Author: Ivan Bašić
• Mentor: Nikola Vladimir (mentor)
• Granter: University of Zagreb; Faculty of Mechanical Engineering and Naval Architecture; Zagreb
• Defense date and country: 2024-12-09, Croatia
• Scientific / art field, discipline and subdiscipline: TECHNICAL SCIENCES; Mechanical Engineering; Marine Mechanical Engineering

Abstract

Cilj istraživanja pomorskih nesreća je unaprijediti sigurnost plovidbe i spriječiti onečišćenja uzrokovana brodovima. Ključni okvir za takva istraživanja osigurala je Međunarodna pomorska organizacija (IMO), koja je 2008. godine usvojila Kodeks za istraživanje nesreća putem rezolucije MSC.255(84), čineći ga obveznim. Na razini Europske unije, Europska agencija za pomorsku sigurnost (EMSA) ima ključnu ulogu u pitanjima sigurnosti plovidbe, zaštite okoliša i nadzora pomorskog prometa. Ovaj rad kombinira analizu stabla grešaka (FTA) i Monte Carlo simulacije kako bi se procijenili rizici i uzroci pomorskih nesreća, s naglaskom na sudare brodova. Analiza koristi podatke iz EMSA baze za razdoblje od 2012. do 2023. godine, identificirajući glavne uzroke nesreća: ljudske greške, kvarove opreme i izvanredne situacije. Na temelju tih uzroka izrađeno je stablo grešaka, koje omogućuje vizualizaciju i analizu uzročno-posljedičnih veza. Provedene su Monte Carlo simulacije s 10.000 i 100.000 iteracija, omogućujući kvantitativnu procjenu minimalnih reznih skupova (MinRS), koji identificiraju kritične točke neuspjeha u sustavu. Rezultati sugeriraju usmjeravanje preventivnih mjera na ključne čimbenike rizika kako bi se smanjila učestalost sudara i poboljšala sigurnost u pomorskom prometu. Kombinacija metoda analize stabla grešaka i Monte Carlo simulacija pokazala se kao snažan alat za razumijevanje i unapređenje sustava sigurnosti pomorskog prometa, doprinoseći pritom smanjenju rizika i zaštiti okoliša.

Abstract (english)

The objective of maritime accident research is to improve navigation safety and prevent pollution caused by ships. A key framework for such investigations was provided by the International Maritime Organization (IMO), which adopted the Casualty Investigation Code in 2008 through resolution MSC.255(84), making it mandatory. At the European Union level, the European Maritime Safety Agency (EMSA) plays a pivotal role in addressing navigation safety, environmental protection, and maritime traffic monitoring. This study combines Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) and Monte Carlo simulations to assess the risks and causes of maritime accidents, with a focus on ship collisions. The analysis utilizes data from the EMSA database covering the period from 2012 to 2023, identifying the main causes of accidents: human errors, equipment failures, and extraordinary circumstances. Based on these causes, a fault tree was constructed to visualise and analyse causal relationships. Monte Carlo simulations were conducted with 10,000 and 100,000 iterations, enabling a quantitative assessment of Minimal Cut Sets (MinRS), which identify critical failure points in the system. The results suggest directing preventive measures toward key risk factors to reduce the frequency of collisions and improve safety in maritime transport. The combination of fault tree analysis and Monte Carlo simulations has proven to be a powerful tool for understanding and enhancing maritime safety, contributing to risk reduction and environmental protection.

• Keywords: Pomorske nesreće; sudari brodova; sigurnost pomorskog prometa; analiza stabla grešaka; minimalni rezni skupovi; Monte Carlo simulacije
• Keywords (english): Maritime accidents; Ship collisions; Maritime safety; European Maritime Safety Agency; Fault Tree Analysis; Minimal Cut Sets; Monte Carlo simulations
• Language: croatian
• URN:NBN: urn:nbn:hr:235:832179
• Study programme: Title: Mechanical Engineering; specializations in: Design, Process and Energy Engineering, Production Engineering, Engineering Modelling and Computer Simulation, Marine Engineering, Industrial Engineering and Management, Materials Engineering, Mechanics and Robotics, Autonomous Systems, Mechatronics and Robotics; Course: Marine Engineering; Study programme type: university; Study level: graduate; Academic / professional title: sveučilišni/a magistar/magistra inženjer/inženjerka strojarstva (sveučilišni/a magistar/magistra inženjer/inženjerka strojarstva)
• Type of resource: Text
• File origin: Born digital
• Access conditions: Open access
• Created on: 2024-11-29 15:34:50